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Forecasting

Predict within honest uncertainty.

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---
name: Forecasting
description: Predict within honest uncertainty.
---
# Forecasting

A forecast that gives a single number is almost certainly wrong. A forecast that gives a range with stated assumptions is honest and useful.

## Method
- **Start from drivers, not history.** Revenue = customers × ARPU × retention. Modeling the drivers adapts when conditions change; extrapolating a trend breaks.
- **Multiple scenarios.** Base, upside, downside — each with the assumptions that produce it. The point isn't to pick one; it's to show the range.
- **Separate signal from seasonality.** A December spike isn't growth; it's seasonality. Adjust before projecting.
- **Show confidence.** A 12-month forecast with ±5% and one with ±50% demand very different decisions.

## Track accuracy
Re-forecast the past. If your model can't predict the last 4 quarters, it won't predict the next 4. Calibrate.